Car News

2010 Ford F-150 Raptor (source: msheena)

This is part two in my coverage of the 2009 San Francisco Auto Show, to read part one you can click here.

When I crossed over to the other hall at the Moscone Center, I got a lump in my throat: There was the Saab display, with the new Saab 9-5 sedan getting center billing. It is hard not be a bit emotional about the Saab brand. My wife and I both have a strong history with the Swedish cars and the thought that Saab might ending is hard to fathom. Saab had planned a press event for the San Francisco show, but literally canceled it a few hours after sending the invite. Looking over the new Saab 9-5, it has all the makings of being a strong entry. There still is hope that Saab might be purchased by outside investors and that the San Francisco show won’t be one of the last events for the marque. The Saab stand is already bought and paid for at this week’s Los Angeles show, so technically if the company goes into the history books the LA show would probably be its the last. Let us hope for a miracle. Shots of the 9-5 sedan are in the slideshow below this article.

Also on display at the San Francisco show were the controversial Acura ZDX and Honda Crosstour. These hatchbacks have somewhat awkward styling with the Acura winning the beauty contest (if barely). I am usually a big fan of anything with a hatch, but neither of these cars wins me over. I had held some hope that these cars would be better looking in person, but sadly my opinion did not change upon viewing them up close and personal. My opinion notwithstanding, both the ZDX and Crosstour were surrounded by interested visitors and a friend of mine was quite taken with the ZDX, so they may hit their sales targets. I have embedded a video of the Crosstour below this post and ZDX photos are in the slideshow.

The Ford area was relatively busy in comparison to other manufacturer’s displays. A large reason for this was a talking robot that captivated the crowd with a comedy routine. The robot was a great way to keep folks in the Ford area while telling them about innovations like the MyKey system which allows parents to limit speed and audio volume when teen drivers are behind the wheel.

Also receiving a lot of interest from the crowds was the Hyundai Equus luxury sedan. The Equus will slot above the well received Genesis and will be priced in an estimated $40K to $50K range. Interest seemed to be strong, we will see if that translates into sales. Photos of the Equus are in the slideshow below.

The Academy of Art University had a nice collection of classic cars on display and I will post a story and slideshow on the display as my third and final installation of my 2009 San Francisco Auto Show coverage.

Honda Crosstour

Kia Sorrento

Ford MyKey

2010 Ford F-150 Raptor (source: msheena)

This is part two in my coverage of the 2009 San Francisco Auto Show, to read part one you can click here.

When I crossed over to the other hall at the Moscone Center, I got a lump in my throat: There was the Saab display, with the new Saab 9-5 sedan getting center billing. It is hard not be a bit emotional about the Saab brand. My wife and I both have a strong history with the Swedish cars and the thought that Saab might ending is hard to fathom. Saab had planned a press event for the San Francisco show, but literally canceled it a few hours after sending the invite. Looking over the new Saab 9-5, it has all the makings of being a strong entry. There still is hope that Saab might be purchased by outside investors and that the San Francisco show won’t be one of the last events for the marque. The Saab stand is already bought and paid for at this week’s Los Angeles show, so technically if the company goes into the history books the LA show would probably be its the last. Let us hope for a miracle. Shots of the 9-5 sedan are in the slideshow below this article.

Also on display at the San Francisco show were the controversial Acura ZDX and Honda Crosstour. These hatchbacks have somewhat awkward styling with the Acura winning the beauty contest (if barely). I am usually a big fan of anything with a hatch, but neither of these cars wins me over. I had held some hope that these cars would be better looking in person, but sadly my opinion did not change upon viewing them up close and personal. My opinion notwithstanding, both the ZDX and Crosstour were surrounded by interested visitors and a friend of mine was quite taken with the ZDX, so they may hit their sales targets. I have embedded a video of the Crosstour below this post and ZDX photos are in the slideshow.

The Ford area was relatively busy in comparison to other manufacturer’s displays. A large reason for this was a talking robot that captivated the crowd with a comedy routine. The robot was a great way to keep folks in the Ford area while telling them about innovations like the MyKey system which allows parents to limit speed and audio volume when teen drivers are behind the wheel.

Also receiving a lot of interest from the crowds was the Hyundai Equus luxury sedan. The Equus will slot above the well received Genesis and will be priced in an estimated $40K to $50K range. Interest seemed to be strong, we will see if that translates into sales. Photos of the Equus are in the slideshow below.

The Academy of Art University had a nice collection of classic cars on display and I will post a story and slideshow on the display as my third and final installation of my 2009 San Francisco Auto Show coverage.

Honda Crosstour

Kia Sorrento

Ford MyKey

2010 Toyota 4Runner (courtesy: Toyota)

While attending the 2009 San Francisco Auto Show, I had the opportunity to check out the new 2010 Toyota 4Runner.

Below this post is a video of the 4Runner spinning on a turntable. It is a nice way to view the truck from all angles and gain another perspective.

Overall, I found the 2010 Toyota 4Runner to be as handsome in person as it appears online. Sadly, my stopover at the Honda booth was not as fruitful as the Honda Crosstour looks as droopy in person as it does in pictures.

In addition to the video, I also have uploaded a fresh batch of 4Runner photos. For more information on the 2010 Toyota 4Runner, you can view my previous post on the 4Runner which includes many more photos, quotes from reviewers and a link to a brochure.

2010 Toyota 4Runner (courtesy: Toyota)

While attending the 2009 San Francisco Auto Show, I had the opportunity to check out the new 2010 Toyota 4Runner.

Below this post is a video of the 4Runner spinning on a turntable. It is a nice way to view the truck from all angles and gain another perspective.

Overall, I found the 2010 Toyota 4Runner to be as handsome in person as it appears online. Sadly, my stopover at the Honda booth was not as fruitful as the Honda Crosstour looks as droopy in person as it does in pictures.

In addition to the video, I also have uploaded a fresh batch of 4Runner photos. For more information on the 2010 Toyota 4Runner, you can view my previous post on the 4Runner which includes many more photos, quotes from reviewers and a link to a brochure.

Here is an email from the Healdsburg Housing Bubble (HHB) about Wells Fargo Chief Economist: “There is no clear, easy way out for housing”.

HHB writes …

Hi Mish,

I saw you linked to an istockanalyst article that quotes extensively from a piece I wrote on Wells Fargo Option ARMs. In his piece, and subsequently in your post, it is hard to tell where his analysis ends and mine begins (due to lack of blockquotes).

For the record the istockanalyst opinion that Option ARMs don’t pose a threat to Wells is not one I agree with, despite the fact he relies on my data to get to this conclusion.

You hit the nail on the head. This is a version of extend and pretend, granted one that was written into the terms of the loans from the start. RECASTS won’t automatically happen until 2014/15.

But the point of my article was simply to point out that that the widely used reset chart by Credit Suisse had a major error by assuming contractual 5 year recasts (when the Golden West 10Ks clearly state 10 year recasts) and most people were not paying attention to how this played out on Wells’ balance sheet.

In fact, I made a point of saying “Of course, none of this is to say that Wells Fargo is out of the woods. They are essentially stashing away on their balance sheet tens of billions of neg-am loans that will recast into 20-year fixed rate mortgages in 2014 and 2015.”

Here is my original piece:

Reset Chart from Credit Suisse has a Major Error

If you click through, I also put together a chart showing that while recasts won’t technically occur until 2014, people will definitely be walking away long beforehand as those yearly 7.5% increases start to stack up. It’s a mess for Wells and they know it.

They are trying to outrun the problem racking up earnings now while short rates are near zero, hoping they’ll be able to absorb these losses down the road. We’ll see how it turns out.

Again, good analysis of the problem. I just wanted to clarify my opinion from the istockanalyst article given you both quoted me at length.

Keep it up the good work…

-HHB

Thanks HHB.

One of the limitations of blogger is that one cannot put a blockquote in a blockquote and layers of referbacks are not easy to represent. I handle it with italics as best I can.

In this case however, I never made it back to the original post because it was clear that istockanalyst missed the boat. Inquiring minds may want to take a look at HHB’s post for a couple nice charts and graphs on the situation with Pay Option ARMs.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Mike “Mish” Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.
Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Here is an email from the Healdsburg Housing Bubble (HHB) about Wells Fargo Chief Economist: “There is no clear, easy way out for housing”.

HHB writes …

Hi Mish,

I saw you linked to an istockanalyst article that quotes extensively from a piece I wrote on Wells Fargo Option ARMs. In his piece, and subsequently in your post, it is hard to tell where his analysis ends and mine begins (due to lack of blockquotes).

For the record the istockanalyst opinion that Option ARMs don’t pose a threat to Wells is not one I agree with, despite the fact he relies on my data to get to this conclusion.

You hit the nail on the head. This is a version of extend and pretend, granted one that was written into the terms of the loans from the start. RECASTS won’t automatically happen until 2014/15.

But the point of my article was simply to point out that that the widely used reset chart by Credit Suisse had a major error by assuming contractual 5 year recasts (when the Golden West 10Ks clearly state 10 year recasts) and most people were not paying attention to how this played out on Wells’ balance sheet.

In fact, I made a point of saying “Of course, none of this is to say that Wells Fargo is out of the woods. They are essentially stashing away on their balance sheet tens of billions of neg-am loans that will recast into 20-year fixed rate mortgages in 2014 and 2015.”

Here is my original piece:

Reset Chart from Credit Suisse has a Major Error

If you click through, I also put together a chart showing that while recasts won’t technically occur until 2014, people will definitely be walking away long beforehand as those yearly 7.5% increases start to stack up. It’s a mess for Wells and they know it.

They are trying to outrun the problem racking up earnings now while short rates are near zero, hoping they’ll be able to absorb these losses down the road. We’ll see how it turns out.

Again, good analysis of the problem. I just wanted to clarify my opinion from the istockanalyst article given you both quoted me at length.

Keep it up the good work…

-HHB

Thanks HHB.

One of the limitations of blogger is that one cannot put a blockquote in a blockquote and layers of referbacks are not easy to represent. I handle it with italics as best I can.

In this case however, I never made it back to the original post because it was clear that istockanalyst missed the boat. Inquiring minds may want to take a look at HHB’s post for a couple nice charts and graphs on the situation with Pay Option ARMs.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Mike “Mish” Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.
Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

In 2003 Donald Rumsfeld estimated a war with Iraq would cost $60 billion. Five years later, the cost of Iraq war operations is over 10 times that figure.

So what’s behind the ballooning dollar signs? Joseph E. Stiglitz and Linda J. Bilme’s exhaustedly researched book, “The Three Trillion Dollar War: The True Cost of the Iraq Conflict,” breaks down the price tag, from current debts to the unseen costs we’ll pay for years to come.

Obama May Add 30,000 Troops in Afghanistan

Please consider Obama May Add 30,000 Troops in Afghanistan

President Obama said Tuesday that he was determined to “finish the job” in Afghanistan, and his aides signaled to allies that he would send as many as 25,000 to 30,000 additional American troops there even as they cautioned that the final number remained in flux.

The White House said Mr. Obama had completed his consultations with his war council on Monday night and would formally announce his decision in a national address in the next week, probably on Tuesday.

At a news conference in the East Room with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh of India, Mr. Obama suggested that his approach would break from the policies he had inherited from the Bush administration and said that the goals would be to keep Al Qaeda from using the region to launch more attacks against the United States and to bring more stability to Afghanistan.

“After eight years — some of those years in which we did not have, I think, either the resources or the strategy to get the job done — it is my intention to finish the job,” he said.

Ms. Pelosi said she did not want to sacrifice the party’s domestic agenda to the cost of the troop buildup. “The American people believe that if something is in our national security interest, we have to be able to afford it,” she said. “That doesn’t mean that we hold everything else” hostage to that.

Cost Per Soldier = $1 Million

War mongering costs are rising. Please consider High Costs Weigh on Troop Debate for Afghan War.

While President Obama’s decision about sending more troops to Afghanistan is primarily a military one, it also has substantial budget implications that are adding pressure to limit the commitment, senior administration officials say.

The latest internal government estimates place the cost of adding 40,000 American troops and sharply expanding the Afghan security forces, as favored by Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal, the top American and allied commander in Afghanistan, at $40 billion to $54 billion a year, the officials said.

Even if fewer troops are sent, or their mission is modified, the rough formula used by the White House, of about $1 million per soldier a year, appears almost constant.

The estimated $1 million a year it costs per soldier is higher than the $390,000 congressional researchers estimated in 2006.

Military analysts said the increase reflects a surge in costs for mine-resistant troop carriers and surveillance equipment that would apply to troops in both Iraq and Afghanistan. But some costs are unique to Afghanistan, where it can cost as much as $400 a gallon to deliver fuel to the troops through mountainous terrain.

Some administration estimates suggest it could also cost up to $50 billion over five years to more than double the size of the Afghan army and police force, to a total of 400,000. That includes recruiting, training and equipment.

At a stop at a military base in Alaska on Thursday, Mr. Obama told a gathering of soldiers that he would not risk more lives “unless it is necessary to America’s vital interests.”

Double The Idiocy

Any expectations that Obama would show some sense of restraint about military spending have long ago vanished.

“It is my intention to finish the job” translates to “I will blow another $3 trillion war mongering if that is what it takes”. And of course Pelosi does not think war idiocy should be at the expense of domestic idiocy.

War mongers want war but they do not want to pay for it. Sadly, Obama, Bush, Pelosi are all alike. Thus, Congress and the Administration is committed to having military idiocy and domestic idiocy at the same time.

God do we ever need a balanced budget amendment and a sound currency. We should not fund a damn thing unless we are willing to raise taxes to pay for it. Virtually no one but the war mongers and the military beneficiaries would be in support of raising taxes to pay for this monstrosity.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Mike “Mish” Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.
Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

In 2003 Donald Rumsfeld estimated a war with Iraq would cost $60 billion. Five years later, the cost of Iraq war operations is over 10 times that figure.

So what’s behind the ballooning dollar signs? Joseph E. Stiglitz and Linda J. Bilme’s exhaustedly researched book, “The Three Trillion Dollar War: The True Cost of the Iraq Conflict,” breaks down the price tag, from current debts to the unseen costs we’ll pay for years to come.

Obama May Add 30,000 Troops in Afghanistan

Please consider Obama May Add 30,000 Troops in Afghanistan

President Obama said Tuesday that he was determined to “finish the job” in Afghanistan, and his aides signaled to allies that he would send as many as 25,000 to 30,000 additional American troops there even as they cautioned that the final number remained in flux.

The White House said Mr. Obama had completed his consultations with his war council on Monday night and would formally announce his decision in a national address in the next week, probably on Tuesday.

At a news conference in the East Room with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh of India, Mr. Obama suggested that his approach would break from the policies he had inherited from the Bush administration and said that the goals would be to keep Al Qaeda from using the region to launch more attacks against the United States and to bring more stability to Afghanistan.

“After eight years — some of those years in which we did not have, I think, either the resources or the strategy to get the job done — it is my intention to finish the job,” he said.

Ms. Pelosi said she did not want to sacrifice the party’s domestic agenda to the cost of the troop buildup. “The American people believe that if something is in our national security interest, we have to be able to afford it,” she said. “That doesn’t mean that we hold everything else” hostage to that.

Cost Per Soldier = $1 Million

War mongering costs are rising. Please consider High Costs Weigh on Troop Debate for Afghan War.

While President Obama’s decision about sending more troops to Afghanistan is primarily a military one, it also has substantial budget implications that are adding pressure to limit the commitment, senior administration officials say.

The latest internal government estimates place the cost of adding 40,000 American troops and sharply expanding the Afghan security forces, as favored by Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal, the top American and allied commander in Afghanistan, at $40 billion to $54 billion a year, the officials said.

Even if fewer troops are sent, or their mission is modified, the rough formula used by the White House, of about $1 million per soldier a year, appears almost constant.

The estimated $1 million a year it costs per soldier is higher than the $390,000 congressional researchers estimated in 2006.

Military analysts said the increase reflects a surge in costs for mine-resistant troop carriers and surveillance equipment that would apply to troops in both Iraq and Afghanistan. But some costs are unique to Afghanistan, where it can cost as much as $400 a gallon to deliver fuel to the troops through mountainous terrain.

Some administration estimates suggest it could also cost up to $50 billion over five years to more than double the size of the Afghan army and police force, to a total of 400,000. That includes recruiting, training and equipment.

At a stop at a military base in Alaska on Thursday, Mr. Obama told a gathering of soldiers that he would not risk more lives “unless it is necessary to America’s vital interests.”

Double The Idiocy

Any expectations that Obama would show some sense of restraint about military spending have long ago vanished.

“It is my intention to finish the job” translates to “I will blow another $3 trillion war mongering if that is what it takes”. And of course Pelosi does not think war idiocy should be at the expense of domestic idiocy.

War mongers want war but they do not want to pay for it. Sadly, Obama, Bush, Pelosi are all alike. Thus, Congress and the Administration is committed to having military idiocy and domestic idiocy at the same time.

God do we ever need a balanced budget amendment and a sound currency. We should not fund a damn thing unless we are willing to raise taxes to pay for it. Virtually no one but the war mongers and the military beneficiaries would be in support of raising taxes to pay for this monstrosity.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Mike “Mish” Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.
Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.